With Nigeria’s presidential elections slated for Saturday 25 February, the country’s independent electoral commission’s offices have suffered several attacks in recent weeks. Concerns over security have been such that its head, Mahmood Yakubu, expressed doubts on 9 January whether the elections could take place.
Already, in early November, the US embassy had decided to repatriate its “non-essential” diplomatic personnel from the federal capital, Abuja, following a security briefing that was kept confidential. The move prompted a good number of diplomats and businessmen to flee at the time. In turn, the Nigerian press’ reaction ranged from criticism of Washington to alarmist views about rising violence.
Security, once again, is at the heart of the political debate in Africa’s most populous country.
Incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari, a retired general now in his 80s, was elected in 2015 and re-elected in 2019 on the twin promises of ending corruption and insecurity in the country.
His record in office is being defended by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, candidate of Buhari’s party, the All Progressive Congress (APC). Officially 70 years old, Tinubu is the former governor of Lagos (1999-2007), whose corruption cases made headlines in the 1990s. There are 18 candidates in total, and Tinubu’s main opponent is Abubakar Atiku, 76, of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), in power between 1999 and 2015. For the first eight years of that period, Atiku was vice president. Peter Obi of the Labour Party, 61, has a measure of momentum and enjoys support among the younger generation, dubbed the “Obidient”. As they stand, the polls currently available don’t seem particularly reliable.
In Nigeria, there is an unspoken rule that a northern (predominantly Muslim) president should be succeeded by a southern (predominantly Christian) president. This alternation, which has been in place for 24 years, would mean that the president elected in 2023 would be from the south and Christian
However, the southern candidate, Tinubu, is a Muslim, as are his main northern opponent, Atiku, and the current president, Buhari. Tinubu, has a Muslim running mate, forming a “Muslim-Muslim” ticket. Atiku, on the other hand, is running with a southern Christian. The candidacy of the southern Christian Peter Obi, whose running mate is Muslim, would look ideal on paper if he were not also Igbo, an ethnic group from the South-East (15 to 18% of the total population of the country), sometimes associated with the ex-secessionists of Biafra. How, then, will Nigerians react to this break with traditional patterns?
Since independence in 1960, Nigeria’s political history has been marked by alternating periods of “republican” rule and autocracies often installed through military coups. The current political system – the fourth republic – will have its seventh consecutive presidential election in February.
In Nigerian history, electoral periods tend to be marred by instability and violence. While the first election in 1999 was conducted peacefully, President Obasanjo’s re-election in 2003 was more eventful, with many observers describing it as fraudulent.
Alongside inflation and the cost of living, insecurity is one of the subjects most dealt with by the candidates of the various parties.
Kidnappings, robberies and other criminal acts are frequent, and hundreds of deaths per year are caused by terrorist violence in the north, conflicts over territorial resources in the centre, and oil in the south.
The three main candidates propose more or less the same thing: more police and military personnel, and more use of technology.
